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Sustainability 2016, 8(10), 1045; doi:10.3390/su8101045

Simulating the Impact of Economic and Environmental Strategies on Future Urban Growth Scenarios in Ningbo, China

1
and
2,3,*
1
School of Geography, Planning and Environmental Management, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD 4072, Australia
2
College of Marine Sciences, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China
3
The Key Laboratory of Sustainable Exploitation of Oceanic Fisheries Resources (Ministry of Education), Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Brian Deal
Received: 7 October 2016 / Revised: 7 October 2016 / Accepted: 13 October 2016 / Published: 18 October 2016
(This article belongs to the Section Sustainable Urban and Rural Development)
View Full-Text   |   Download PDF [17334 KB, uploaded 18 October 2016]   |  

Abstract

Coastal cities in China are challenged by multiple growth paths and strategies related to demands in the housing market, economic growth and eco-system protection. This paper examines the effects of conflicting strategies between economic growth and environmental protection on future urban scenarios in Ningbo, China, through logistic-regression-based cellular automata (termed LogCA) modeling. The LogCA model is calibrated based on the observed urban patterns in 1990 and 2015, and applied to simulate four future scenarios in 2040, including (a) the Norm-scenario, a baseline scenario that maintains the 1990–2015 growth rate; (b) the GDP-scenario, a GDP-oriented growth scenario emphasizing the development in city centers and along economic corridors; (c) the Slow-scenario, a slow-growth scenario considering the potential downward trend of the housing market in China; and (d) the Eco-scenario, a slow-growth scenario emphasizing natural conservation and ecosystem protections. The CA parameters of the Norm- and Slow-scenarios are the same as the calibrated parameters, while the parameters of proximities to economic corridors and natural scenery sites were increased by a factor of 3 for the GDP- and Eco-scenarios, respectively. The Norm- and GDP-scenarios predicted 1950 km2 of new growth for the next 25 years, the Slow-scenario predicted 650 km2, and the Eco-scenario predicted less growth than the Slow-scenario. The locations where the newly built-up area will emerge are significantly different under the four scenarios and the Slow- and Eco-scenarios are preferable to achieve long-term sustainability. The scenarios are not only helpful for exploring sustainable urban development options in China, but also serve as a reference for adjusting the urban planning and land policies. View Full-Text
Keywords: future scenario; urban modeling; cellular automata; economic growth; environmental protection; Ningbo future scenario; urban modeling; cellular automata; economic growth; environmental protection; Ningbo
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This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (CC BY 4.0).

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Liu, Y.; Feng, Y. Simulating the Impact of Economic and Environmental Strategies on Future Urban Growth Scenarios in Ningbo, China. Sustainability 2016, 8, 1045.

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