Possible Futures towards a Wood-Based Bioeconomy: A Scenario Analysis for Germany
AbstractDriven by the growing awareness of the finite nature of fossil raw materials and the need for sustainable pathways of industrial production, the bio-based economy is expected to expand worldwide. Policy strategies such as the European Union Bioeconomy Strategy and national bioeconomy strategies foster this process. Besides the advantages promised by a transition towards a sustainable bioeconomy, these processes have to cope with significant uncertainties as many influencing factors play a role, such as climate change, technological and economic development, sustainability risks, dynamic consumption patterns and policy and governance issues. Based on a literature review and an expert survey, we identify influence factors for the future development of a wood-based bioeconomy in Germany. Four scenarios are generated based on different assumptions about the development of relevant influence factors. We discuss what developments in politics, industry and society have a central impact on shaping alternative futures. As such, the paper provides a knowledge base and orientation for decision makers and practitioners, and contributes to the scientific discussion on how the bioeconomy could develop. We conclude that the wood-based bioeconomy has a certain potential to develop further, if adequate political framework conditions are implemented and meet voter support, if consumers exhibit an enhanced willingness to pay for bio-based products, and if among companies, a chance-oriented advocacy coalition of bioeconomy supporters dominates over proponents of fossil pathways. View Full-Text
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Hagemann, N.; Gawel, E.; Purkus, A.; Pannicke, N.; Hauck, J. Possible Futures towards a Wood-Based Bioeconomy: A Scenario Analysis for Germany. Sustainability 2016, 8, 98.
Hagemann N, Gawel E, Purkus A, Pannicke N, Hauck J. Possible Futures towards a Wood-Based Bioeconomy: A Scenario Analysis for Germany. Sustainability. 2016; 8(1):98.Chicago/Turabian Style
Hagemann, Nina; Gawel, Erik; Purkus, Alexandra; Pannicke, Nadine; Hauck, Jennifer. 2016. "Possible Futures towards a Wood-Based Bioeconomy: A Scenario Analysis for Germany." Sustainability 8, no. 1: 98.
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