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Sustainability 2015, 7(8), 11050-11067; doi:10.3390/su70811050

A Framework for Sustainable Urban Water Management through Demand and Supply Forecasting: The Case of Istanbul

Business Administration, Istanbul Ticaret University, Istanbul 34445, Turkey
School of Management and Administrative Sciences, Istanbul Sehir University, Istanbul 34662, Turkey
Department of Industrial Engineering, Istanbul Sehir University, Istanbul 34662, Turkey
These authors contributed equally to this work.
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editors: Tan Yigitcanlar and Md. Kamruzzaman
Received: 30 March 2015 / Revised: 17 July 2015 / Accepted: 3 August 2015 / Published: 13 August 2015
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Planning, Development and Management of Sustainable Cities)
View Full-Text   |   Download PDF [833 KB, uploaded 13 August 2015]   |  


The metropolitan city of Istanbul is becoming overcrowded and the demand for clean water is steeply rising in the city. The use of analytical approaches has become more and more critical for forecasting the water supply and demand balance in the long run. In this research, Istanbul’s water supply and demand data is collected for the period during 2006 and 2014. Then, using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, the time series water supply and demand forecasting model is constructed for the period between 2015 and 2018. Three important sustainability metrics such as water loss to supply ratio, water loss to demand ratio, and water loss to residential demand ratio are also presented. The findings show that residential water demand is responsible for nearly 80% of total water use and the consumption categories including commercial, industrial, agriculture, outdoor, and others have a lower share in total water demand. The results also show that there is a considerable water loss in the water distribution system which requires significant investments on the water supply networks. Furthermore, the forecasting results indicated that pipeline projects will be critical in the near future due to expected increases in the total water demand of Istanbul. The authors suggest that sustainable management of water can be achieved by reducing the residential water use through the use of water efficient technologies in households and reduction in water supply loss through investments on distribution infrastructure. View Full-Text
Keywords: water supply; demand; time-series forecasting; ARIMA; urban water sustainability; Istanbul water supply; demand; time-series forecasting; ARIMA; urban water sustainability; Istanbul

Figure 1a

This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (CC BY 4.0).

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MDPI and ACS Style

Yalçıntaş, M.; Bulu, M.; Küçükvar, M.; Samadi, H. A Framework for Sustainable Urban Water Management through Demand and Supply Forecasting: The Case of Istanbul. Sustainability 2015, 7, 11050-11067.

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