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Sustainability 2015, 7(8), 10664-10683; doi:10.3390/su70810664

Predicting the Trend of Taiwan’s Electronic Paper Industry by an Effective Combined Grey Model

Department of Industrial Engineering and Management, National Kaohsiung University of Applied Sciences, No. 415, Chien Kung Road, Sanmin District, Kaohsiung City 80778, Taiwan
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Academic Editor: Tin-Chih Chen
Received: 18 May 2015 / Revised: 2 August 2015 / Accepted: 3 August 2015 / Published: 7 August 2015
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Competitive and Sustainable Manufacturing in the Age of Globalization)
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Abstract

Electronic paper (e-paper) is a major sector of Taiwan’s Optoelectronic industry. It has paid much attention on the development of flexible displays. Even though the market is booming, the future is still unclear for business development. No research has yet forecasted the future market size of the e-paper industry. In addition, proposing an appropriate forecasting model to understand the trend of this industry plays a crucial role for market players and government’s authorities in formulating correct strategies. Therefore, in this paper, the future market size of Taiwan’s e-paper industry is predicted by an effective combined grey model. Two combinations of DGM(2,1) and Verhulst model with Fourier series and Markov chain, namely FM-Verhulst and FMDGM(2,1), were presented. Based on the annual data of Taiwan’s e-paper industry, the results show that the forecasting performances of two FM-Verhulst and FMDGM(2,1) models are highly accurate compared with other grey models. Precision is 96.36% and 97.77%, respectively. However, for long-term prediction, the FMDGM(2,1) model obtains the best performance in all proposed grey models. With obtained forecasting results in Taiwan’s e-paper industry by the FMDGM(2,1) model, it can be pointed out that the future market size of Taiwan’s e-paper would slowly increase in the next few years. View Full-Text
Keywords: forecasting; electronic paper; grey model; Fourier series; Markov chain forecasting; electronic paper; grey model; Fourier series; Markov chain
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (CC BY 4.0).

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MDPI and ACS Style

Huang, Y.-F.; Wang, C.-N.; Dang, H.-S.; Lai, S.-T. Predicting the Trend of Taiwan’s Electronic Paper Industry by an Effective Combined Grey Model. Sustainability 2015, 7, 10664-10683.

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