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Sustainability 2015, 7(7), 8116-8131; doi:10.3390/su7078116

Integrating Regret Psychology to Travel Mode Choice for a Transit-Oriented Evacuation Strategy

School of Transportation Science and Engineering, Harbin Institute of Technology, 73 Huanghe Road, Harbin 150090, China
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Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editors: Bin Yu and Tao Feng
Received: 31 March 2015 / Revised: 15 June 2015 / Accepted: 18 June 2015 / Published: 24 June 2015
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Carbon reduction strategies and methods in transportation)
View Full-Text   |   Download PDF [191 KB, uploaded 24 June 2015]

Abstract

Facing the potential dangers from sudden disasters in urban cities, emergency administrators have to make an appropriate evacuation plan to mitigate negative consequences. However, little attention has been paid to evacuee real decision psychology when developing a strategy. The aim of this paper is to analyze evacuee mode choice behavior considering regret aversion psychology during evacuation. First, the utility-based and regret-based models are formulated to obtain evacuees’ preferences on travel mode choice, respectively. According to the data collected from the stated preference (SP) survey on evacuee mode choice, the estimation results show that the regret-based model performs better than the utility model. Moreover, based on the estimates from behavioral analysis, the elasticities of evacuee mode choices are calculated, and transit strategy simulation is undertaken to investigate the influence on evacuee mode switching from private automobile to public transit. The results are expected to help emergency administrators to make a transit-oriented strategy for a sustainable evacuation plan, especially for the benefit of carless people. View Full-Text
Keywords: evacuation; travel mode choice; regret model; utility model; transit-oriented strategy evacuation; travel mode choice; regret model; utility model; transit-oriented strategy
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (CC BY 4.0).

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MDPI and ACS Style

An, S.; Wang, Z.; Cui, J. Integrating Regret Psychology to Travel Mode Choice for a Transit-Oriented Evacuation Strategy. Sustainability 2015, 7, 8116-8131.

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