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Sustainability 2014, 6(8), 4877-4899; doi:10.3390/su6084877

Vehicle Ownership Analysis Based on GDP per Capita in China: 1963–2050

1
School of Economics and Management, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
2
Institute of Econometrics and Statistics, School of Economics, Nankai University, Tianjin 300071, China
3
Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
4
China Automotive Energy Research Center, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 21 May 2014 / Revised: 16 July 2014 / Accepted: 25 July 2014 / Published: 4 August 2014
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Transportation and Sustainability)
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Abstract

This paper presents the Gompertz function of per capita GDP and vehicle stock to forecast the vehicle ownership of China through to 2050 against a background of increasing energy use and CO2 emissions associated with the potential demands of on-road vehicles. We forecast the level of vehicle stock in China based on the extant patterns of vehicle development in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries, Europe, the United States and Japan. The results show that the OECD pattern and European pattern are more suitable for describing China’s vehicle stock growth when compared with Japanese and U.S. patterns. The study finds that China’s vehicle stock has developed as an S-shaped curve. During the forecast period, the inflection point of the increasing curve appears around the year 2030, with the annual growth of vehicle ownership increasing from 6.13% to 9.50% in the prior period prior and subsequently dropping to 0.45% in 2050. Based on the sensitivity analysis and robustness check, the impact of different Gompertz curve parameters and GDP growth rates on vehicle stock projection are analyzed. View Full-Text
Keywords: vehicle ownership; per capita GDP; Gompertz function; MARMA model vehicle ownership; per capita GDP; Gompertz function; MARMA model
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY 3.0).

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Wu, T.; Zhao, H.; Ou, X. Vehicle Ownership Analysis Based on GDP per Capita in China: 1963–2050. Sustainability 2014, 6, 4877-4899.

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