Next Article in Journal
Empirical Validation of a Thermal Model of a Complex Roof Including Phase Change Materials
Next Article in Special Issue
Enhanced Predictive Current Control of Three-Phase Grid-Tied Reversible Converters with Improved Switching Patterns
Previous Article in Journal
A Numerical Study on System Performance of Groundwater Heat Pumps
Previous Article in Special Issue
A Multi Time Scale Wind Power Forecasting Model of a Chaotic Echo State Network Based on a Hybrid Algorithm of Particle Swarm Optimization and Tabu Search
Article Menu

Export Article

Open AccessArticle
Energies 2016, 9(1), 8; doi:10.3390/en9010008

Error Assessment of Solar Irradiance Forecasts and AC Power from Energy Conversion Model in Grid-Connected Photovoltaic Systems

1
Energy Department, Politecnico di Torino, corso Duca degli Abruzzi 24, Torino 10129, Italy
2
Department of Engineering and Architecture, University of Trieste, Via Valerio 10, Trieste 34127, Italy
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Guido Carpinelli
Received: 15 October 2015 / Revised: 6 December 2015 / Accepted: 11 December 2015 / Published: 24 December 2015
View Full-Text   |   Download PDF [8232 KB, uploaded 24 December 2015]   |  

Abstract

Availability of effective estimation of the power profiles of photovoltaic systems is essential for studying how to increase the share of intermittent renewable sources in the electricity mix of many countries. For this purpose, weather forecasts, together with historical data of the meteorological quantities, provide fundamental information. The weak point of the forecasts depends on variable sky conditions, when the clouds successively cover and uncover the solar disc. This causes remarkable positive and negative variations in the irradiance pattern measured at the photovoltaic (PV) site location. This paper starts from 1 to 3 days-ahead solar irradiance forecasts available during one year, with a few points for each day. These forecasts are interpolated to obtain more irradiance estimations per day. The estimated irradiance data are used to classify the sky conditions into clear, variable or cloudy. The results are compared with the outcomes of the same classification carried out with the irradiance measured in meteorological stations at two real PV sites. The occurrence of irradiance spikes in “broken cloud” conditions is identified and discussed. From the measured irradiance, the Alternating Current (AC) power injected into the grid at two PV sites is estimated by using a PV energy conversion model. The AC power errors resulting from the PV model with respect to on-site AC power measurements are shown and discussed. View Full-Text
Keywords: photovoltaic systems; weather forecasts; photovoltaic (PV) conversion model; power profiles; error assessment; distributed generation; renewable energy; irradiance spike photovoltaic systems; weather forecasts; photovoltaic (PV) conversion model; power profiles; error assessment; distributed generation; renewable energy; irradiance spike
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (CC BY 4.0).

Scifeed alert for new publications

Never miss any articles matching your research from any publisher
  • Get alerts for new papers matching your research
  • Find out the new papers from selected authors
  • Updated daily for 49'000+ journals and 6000+ publishers
  • Define your Scifeed now

SciFeed Share & Cite This Article

MDPI and ACS Style

Chicco, G.; Cocina, V.; Di Leo, P.; Spertino, F.; Massi Pavan, A. Error Assessment of Solar Irradiance Forecasts and AC Power from Energy Conversion Model in Grid-Connected Photovoltaic Systems. Energies 2016, 9, 8.

Show more citation formats Show less citations formats

Note that from the first issue of 2016, MDPI journals use article numbers instead of page numbers. See further details here.

Related Articles

Article Metrics

Article Access Statistics

1

Comments

[Return to top]
Energies EISSN 1996-1073 Published by MDPI AG, Basel, Switzerland RSS E-Mail Table of Contents Alert
Back to Top