Next Article in Journal
Failures during Load-Frequency Control Maneuvers in an Upgraded Hydropower Plant: Causes, Identification of Causes and Solution Proposals
Next Article in Special Issue
Impacts of Climate Change and Anthropogenic Activities on the Ecological Restoration of Wetlands in the Arid Regions of China
Previous Article in Journal
A Comparison of Household Carbon Emission Patterns of Urban and Rural China over the 17 Year Period (1995–2011)
Previous Article in Special Issue
Ejin Oasis Land Use and Vegetation Change between 2000 and 2011: The Role of the Ecological Water Diversion Project
Article Menu

Export Article

Open AccessArticle
Energies 2015, 8(10), 10558-10583; doi:10.3390/en81010558

Simulation of Forestland Dynamics in a Typical Deforestation and Afforestation Area under Climate Scenarios

1
School of Soil and Water Conservation, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100038, China
2
Key Laboratory of Soil and Water Conservation & Desertification Combat, Beijing Forest University, Beijing 100038, China
3
Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
4
Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
*
Authors to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Jinwei Dong
Received: 30 June 2015 / Revised: 12 September 2015 / Accepted: 15 September 2015 / Published: 24 September 2015
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Large Scale LUCC, Ecosystem Service, Water Balance and Energy Use)
View Full-Text   |   Download PDF [1960 KB, uploaded 24 September 2015]   |  

Abstract

Forestland dynamics can affect the ecological security of a country and even the global environment, and therefore it is of great practical significance to understand the characteristics of temporal and spatial variations of forestland. Taking Jiangxi Province as the study area, this study first explored the driving mechanism of the natural environment and social economy on deforestation and afforestation using a simultaneous equation model. The results indicate that population size, topographic and geomorphologic factors, climate, and location play leading roles in influencing forestland density fluctuations. Specifically, the population size, economic development level, gross value of forestry production, climate conditions, and government policies are key influencing factors of afforestation. Deforestation is mainly influenced by agricultural population, non-agricultural economy, forestry production, forestry density, location, transportation, and climate. In addition, this study simulated the spatial distribution of land use and analyzed the spatial characteristics and variation trends of forestland area and quality under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) climate scenarios from 2010 to 2030 using the Conversion of Land Use and its Effects (CLUE) model. The results indicate that forestland declines under the Asia-Pacific integrated model (AIM) climate scenario. The environment tends to be heavily damaged under this kind of scenarios, and measures should be taken in order to protect the environment. Although the model for energy supply strategy alternatives and their general environmental impact (MESSAGE) scenario is to some extent better than the AIM scenario, destruction of the environment will still occur, and it is necessary to restrain deforestation and convert shrub land into forestland or garden land. These results can provide significant information for environmental protection, forest resource exploitation, and utilization in the areas experiencing deforestation and afforestation. View Full-Text
Keywords: dynamics of forestland; driving mechanism; climate scenario; simulation dynamics of forestland; driving mechanism; climate scenario; simulation
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (CC BY 4.0).

Scifeed alert for new publications

Never miss any articles matching your research from any publisher
  • Get alerts for new papers matching your research
  • Find out the new papers from selected authors
  • Updated daily for 49'000+ journals and 6000+ publishers
  • Define your Scifeed now

SciFeed Share & Cite This Article

MDPI and ACS Style

Jiang, Q.; Cheng, Y.; Jin, Q.; Deng, X.; Qi, Y. Simulation of Forestland Dynamics in a Typical Deforestation and Afforestation Area under Climate Scenarios. Energies 2015, 8, 10558-10583.

Show more citation formats Show less citations formats

Related Articles

Article Metrics

Article Access Statistics

1

Comments

[Return to top]
Energies EISSN 1996-1073 Published by MDPI AG, Basel, Switzerland RSS E-Mail Table of Contents Alert
Back to Top