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• Yang, M
• Qian, X
• Zhang, Y
• Sheng, J
• Shen, D
• Ge, Y
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• Yang, M
• Qian, X
• Zhang, Y
• Sheng, J
• Shen, D
• Ge, Y
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• Yang, M
• Qian, X
• Zhang, Y
• Sheng, J
• Shen, D
• Ge, Y

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Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2011, 8(5), 1368-1387; doi:10.3390/ijerph8051368

Article

Spatial Multicriteria Decision Analysis of Flood Risks in Aging-Dam Management in China: A Framework and Case Study

Meng Yang ¹ , Xin Qian ^1,* , Yuchao Zhang ^1,* , Jinbao Sheng ² , Dengle Shen ³  and Yi Ge ¹

¹ State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse, School of the Environment, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210046, China ² Dam Safety Management Department, the Ministry of Water Resources of China, Nanjing 210029, China ³ Hydraulic Investigations and Design Institute of Chuzhou, Chuzhou 239000, China

* Authors to whom correspondence should be addressed.

Received: 8 March 2011; in revised form: 15 April 2011 / Accepted: 16 April 2011 / Published: 4 May 2011

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Environmental Health Risk Assessment)

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Abstract: Approximately 30,000 dams in China are aging and are considered to be high-level risks. Developing a framework for analyzing spatial multicriteria flood risk is crucial to ranking management scenarios for these dams, especially in densely populated areas. Based on the theories of spatial multicriteria decision analysis, this report generalizes a framework consisting of scenario definition, problem structuring, criteria construction, spatial quantification of criteria, criteria weighting, decision rules, sensitivity analyses, and scenario appraisal. The framework is presented in detail by using a case study to rank dam rehabilitation, decommissioning and existing-condition scenarios. The results show that there was a serious inundation, and that a dam rehabilitation scenario could reduce the multicriteria flood risk by 0.25 in the most affected areas; this indicates a mean risk decrease of less than 23%. Although increased risk (

Keywords: aging dams; flood-risk analysis; dam removal; dam decommissioning

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