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Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2017, 14(2), 146; doi:10.3390/ijerph14020146

A Comparison of Spatio-Temporal Disease Mapping Approaches Including an Application to Ischaemic Heart Disease in New South Wales, Australia

1
School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences, University of Technology Sydney, 15 Broadway, Ultimo, NSW 2007, Australia
2
ARC Centre of Excellence for Mathematical and Statistical Frontiers (ACEMS), Parkville, VIC 3010, Australia
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Jamal Jokar Arsanjani
Received: 14 December 2016 / Revised: 19 January 2017 / Accepted: 20 January 2017 / Published: 3 February 2017
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Spatial Modelling for Public Health Research)
View Full-Text   |   Download PDF [3050 KB, uploaded 3 February 2017]   |  

Abstract

The field of spatio-temporal modelling has witnessed a recent surge as a result of developments in computational power and increased data collection. These developments allow analysts to model the evolution of health outcomes in both space and time simultaneously. This paper models the trends in ischaemic heart disease (IHD) in New South Wales, Australia over an eight-year period between 2006 and 2013. A number of spatio-temporal models are considered, and we propose a novel method for determining the goodness-of-fit for these models by outlining a spatio-temporal extension of the Moran’s I statistic. We identify an overall decrease in the rates of IHD, but note that the extent of this health improvement varies across the state. In particular, we identified a number of remote areas in the north and west of the state where the risk stayed constant or even increased slightly. View Full-Text
Keywords: spatio-temporal modelling; disease mapping; Bayesian; ischaemic heart disease, Moran’s I spatio-temporal modelling; disease mapping; Bayesian; ischaemic heart disease, Moran’s I
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Anderson, C.; Ryan, L.M. A Comparison of Spatio-Temporal Disease Mapping Approaches Including an Application to Ischaemic Heart Disease in New South Wales, Australia. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2017, 14, 146.

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