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Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2016, 13(3), 279; doi:10.3390/ijerph13030279

Estimating Temperature-Mortality Exposure-Response Relationships and Optimum Ambient Temperature at the Multi-City Level of China

1
Tianjin Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Huayue Road, Hedong District, Tianjin 300011, China
2
Department of Occupational and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Peking University, Xueyuan Road, Haidian District, Beijing 100191, China
*
Authors to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Paul B. Tchounwou
Received: 26 January 2016 / Revised: 26 February 2016 / Accepted: 29 February 2016 / Published: 3 March 2016
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Abstract

Few studies have explored temperature–mortality relationships in China, especially at the multi-large city level. This study was based on the data of seven typical, large Chinese cities to examine temperature-mortality relationships and optimum temperature of China. A generalized additive model (GAM) was applied to analyze the acute-effect of temperature on non-accidental mortality, and meta-analysis was used to merge data. Furthermore, the lagged effects of temperature up to 40 days on mortality and optimum temperature were analyzed using the distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM). We found that for all non-accidental mortality, high temperature could significantly increase the excess risk (ER) of death by 0.33% (95% confidence interval: 0.11%, 0.56%) with the temperature increase of 1 °C. Similar but non-significant ER of death was observed when temperature decreased. The lagged effect of temperature showed that the relative risk of non-accidental mortality was lowest at 21 °C. Our research suggests that high temperatures are more likely to cause an acute increase in mortality. There was a lagged effect of temperature on mortality, with an optimum temperature of 21 °C. Our results could provide a theoretical basis for climate-related public health policy. View Full-Text
Keywords: temperature; mortality; generalized additive model; distributed lag non-linear model; lagged effects temperature; mortality; generalized additive model; distributed lag non-linear model; lagged effects
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Zeng, Q.; Li, G.; Cui, Y.; Jiang, G.; Pan, X. Estimating Temperature-Mortality Exposure-Response Relationships and Optimum Ambient Temperature at the Multi-City Level of China. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2016, 13, 279.

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