Next Article in Journal
Fine Particulate Matter Pollution and Hospital Admissions for Respiratory Diseases in Beijing, China
Next Article in Special Issue
The Mental Health Outcomes of Drought: A Systematic Review and Causal Process Diagram
Previous Article in Journal
Temporal Trends in Overweight and Obesity, Physical Activity and Screen Time among Czech Adolescents from 2002 to 2014: A National Health Behaviour in School-Aged Children Study
Previous Article in Special Issue
Infectious Diseases, Urbanization and Climate Change: Challenges in Future China
Article Menu

Export Article

Open AccessArticle
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2015, 12(9), 11869-11879; doi:10.3390/ijerph120911869

Quantifying Vulnerability to Extreme Heat in Time Series Analyses: A Novel Approach Applied to Neighborhood Social Disparities under Climate Change

1
Université de Montréal, DSEST, Montréal, QC H3T 1A8, Canada
2
EHESP School of Public Health, Rennes, Sorbonne-Paris Cité 35043, France
3
Institute for Health and Social Policy, McGill University, Montreal QC H3A 1A3, Canada
4
Consortium Ouranos, Montréal, Département Scénarios et Services Climatiques, Montréal, QC H3A 1B9, Canada
5
Institut National de Santé Publique du Québec, Montréal, QC H3A 1B9, Canada
6
Direction de santé publique de l’Agence de la santé et des services sociaux de Montréal, QC H2P 1E2, Canada
7
INSERM U1085 (IRSET), Rennes 35042, France
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Jan C. Semenza
Received: 3 July 2015 / Revised: 29 August 2015 / Accepted: 15 September 2015 / Published: 22 September 2015
(This article belongs to the Collection Climate Change and Human Health)
View Full-Text   |   Download PDF [983 KB, uploaded 22 September 2015]   |  

Abstract

Objectives: We propose a novel approach to examine vulnerability in the relationship between heat and years of life lost and apply to neighborhood social disparities in Montreal and Paris. Methods: We used historical data from the summers of 1990 through 2007 for Montreal and from 2004 through 2009 for Paris to estimate daily years of life lost social disparities (DYLLD), summarizing social inequalities across groups. We used Generalized Linear Models to separately estimate relative risks (RR) for DYLLD in association with daily mean temperatures in both cities. We used 30 climate scenarios of daily mean temperature to estimate future temperature distributions (2021–2050). We performed random effect meta-analyses to assess the impact of climate change by climate scenario for each city and compared the impact of climate change for the two cities using a meta-regression analysis. Results: We show that an increase in ambient temperature leads to an increase in social disparities in daily years of life lost. The impact of climate change on DYLLD attributable to temperature was of 2.06 (95% CI: 1.90, 2.25) in Montreal and 1.77 (95% CI: 1.61, 1.94) in Paris. The city explained a difference of 0.31 (95% CI: 0.14, 0.49) on the impact of climate change. Conclusion: We propose a new analytical approach for estimating vulnerability in the relationship between heat and health. Our results suggest that in Paris and Montreal, health disparities related to heat impacts exist today and will increase in the future. View Full-Text
Keywords: social health inequalities; years of life lost; climate change; climate models; population health; temperature; time-series analyses social health inequalities; years of life lost; climate change; climate models; population health; temperature; time-series analyses
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (CC BY 4.0).

Supplementary material

Scifeed alert for new publications

Never miss any articles matching your research from any publisher
  • Get alerts for new papers matching your research
  • Find out the new papers from selected authors
  • Updated daily for 49'000+ journals and 6000+ publishers
  • Define your Scifeed now

SciFeed Share & Cite This Article

MDPI and ACS Style

Benmarhnia, T.; Grenier, P.; Brand, A.; Fournier, M.; Deguen, S.; Smargiassi, A. Quantifying Vulnerability to Extreme Heat in Time Series Analyses: A Novel Approach Applied to Neighborhood Social Disparities under Climate Change. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2015, 12, 11869-11879.

Show more citation formats Show less citations formats

Related Articles

Article Metrics

Article Access Statistics

1

Comments

[Return to top]
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health EISSN 1660-4601 Published by MDPI AG, Basel, Switzerland RSS E-Mail Table of Contents Alert
Back to Top