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Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2015, 12(6), 6842-6857; doi:10.3390/ijerph120606842

Evaluating the Effects of Temperature on Mortality in Manila City (Philippines) from 2006–2010 Using a Distributed Lag Nonlinear Model

1
Graduate School of Comprehensive Human Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba City, Ibaraki Prefecture 305-8577, Japan
2
Department of Environmental Health, Faculty of Public Health, University of Medicine and Pharmacy, Ho Chi Minh City 70000, Vietnam
3
Faculty of Health and Sports Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba City, Ibaraki Prefecture 305-8577, Japan
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: William Toscano
Received: 13 April 2015 / Revised: 9 June 2015 / Accepted: 11 June 2015 / Published: 16 June 2015
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Abstract

The effect of temperature on the risk of mortality has been described in numerous studies of category-specific (e.g., cause-, sex-, age-, and season-specific) mortality in temperate and subtropical countries, with consistent findings of U-, V-, and J-shaped exposure-response functions. In this study, we analyzed the relationship between temperature and mortality in Manila City (Philippines), during 2006–2010 to identify the potential susceptible populations. We collected daily all-cause and cause-specific death counts from the Philippine Statistics Authority-National Statistics Office and the meteorological variables were collected from the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration. Temperature-mortality relationships were modeled using Poisson regression combined with distributed lag nonlinear models, and were used to perform cause-, sex-, age-, and season-specific analyses. The minimum mortality temperature was 30 °C, and increased risks of mortality were observed per 1 °C increase among elderly persons (RR: 1.53, 95% CI: 1.31–1.80), women (RR: 1.47, 95% CI: 1.27–1.69), and for respiratory causes of death (RR: 1.52, 95% CI: 1.23–1.88). Seasonal effect modification was found to greatly affect the risks in the lower temperature range. Thus, the temperature-mortality relationship in Manila City exhibited an increased risk of mortality among elderly persons, women, and for respiratory-causes, with inherent effect modification in the season-specific analysis. The findings of this study may facilitate the development of public health policies to reduce the effects of air temperature on mortality, especially for these high-risk groups. View Full-Text
Keywords: temperature-mortality relationship; distributed lag nonlinear model; category-specific mortality; all-cause mortality temperature-mortality relationship; distributed lag nonlinear model; category-specific mortality; all-cause mortality
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (CC BY 4.0).

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MDPI and ACS Style

Seposo, X.T.; Dang, T.N.; Honda, Y. Evaluating the Effects of Temperature on Mortality in Manila City (Philippines) from 2006–2010 Using a Distributed Lag Nonlinear Model. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2015, 12, 6842-6857.

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Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health EISSN 1660-4601 Published by MDPI AG, Basel, Switzerland RSS E-Mail Table of Contents Alert
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