Next Article in Journal
Distribution and Source Apportionment of Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs) in Forest Soils from Urban to Rural Areas in the Pearl River Delta of Southern China
Previous Article in Journal
Healthy Food Procurement Policies and Their Impact
Article Menu

Export Article

Open AccessArticle
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2014, 11(3), 2628-2641; doi:10.3390/ijerph110302628

A Combination of Cross Correlation and Trend Analyses Reveals that Kawasaki Disease is a Pollen-Induced Delayed-Type Hyper-Sensitivity Disease

1
Dermatology & Epidemiology Research Institute (DERI), 4978 Totsuka-cho, Totsuka-ku, Yokohama, Kanagawa 244-0003, Japan
2
Department of Genome System Science, Yokohama City University, Seto 22-2, Kanazawa-ku, Yokohama, Kanagawa 236-0027, Japan
3
CN Medical Research, Nishiochiai 3-16-15, Shinjyuku-ku, Tokyo 161-0031, Japan
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 24 December 2013 / Revised: 5 February 2014 / Accepted: 19 February 2014 / Published: 4 March 2014
View Full-Text   |   Download PDF [919 KB, uploaded 19 June 2014]   |  

Abstract

Based on ecological analyses we proposed in 2003 the relation of Kawasaki Disease (KD) onset causing acute febrile systemic vasculitis, and pollen exposure. This study was aimed at investigating the correlation between pollen release and the change in the numbers of KD patients from 1991 to 2002 in Kanagawa, Japan. Short-term changes in the number of KD patients and medium- to long-term trends were analyzed separately. Short-term changes in the number of KD patients showed a significant positive cross correlation (CC) with 9- to 10-month delay following pollen releases, and a smaller but significant CC with 3- to 4-month delay. Further, a temporal relationship revealed by positive CC distribution showed that pollen release preceded KD development, suggesting that pollen release leads to KD development. A trend in patient numbers was fitted by an exponential curve with the time constant of 0.005494. We hypothesized that the trend was caused by the cumulative effects of pollen exposure for elapsed months on patients who may develop KD. By comparing the time constants of fitted exponential curve for each pollen accumulation period with 0.005494, the exposure period was estimated to be 21.4 months, which explains why approximately 50% of patients developed KD within 24 months from birth. View Full-Text
Keywords: Kawasaki Disease; pollen-induced disease; cross-correlation; pollen release; pollen exposure; trend; exponential curve Kawasaki Disease; pollen-induced disease; cross-correlation; pollen release; pollen exposure; trend; exponential curve
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY 3.0).

Scifeed alert for new publications

Never miss any articles matching your research from any publisher
  • Get alerts for new papers matching your research
  • Find out the new papers from selected authors
  • Updated daily for 49'000+ journals and 6000+ publishers
  • Define your Scifeed now

SciFeed Share & Cite This Article

MDPI and ACS Style

Awaya, A.; Nishimura, C. A Combination of Cross Correlation and Trend Analyses Reveals that Kawasaki Disease is a Pollen-Induced Delayed-Type Hyper-Sensitivity Disease. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2014, 11, 2628-2641.

Show more citation formats Show less citations formats

Related Articles

Article Metrics

Article Access Statistics

1

Comments

[Return to top]
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health EISSN 1660-4601 Published by MDPI AG, Basel, Switzerland RSS E-Mail Table of Contents Alert
Back to Top