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Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2013, 10(7), 2888-2896; doi:10.3390/ijerph10072888
Communication

Scoping the Impact of Changes in Population Age-Structure on the Future Burden of Foodborne Disease in The Netherlands, 2020–2060

1,* , 2
 and
1,3
1 Centre for Zoonoses and Environmental Microbiology, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, P.O. Box 1, Bilthoven NL-3720BA, The Netherlands 2 Centre for Epidemiology and Surveillance of Infectious Diseases, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, P.O. Box 1, Bilthoven NL-3720BA, The Netherlands 3 Institute for Risk Assessment Sciences, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Utrecht University, Utrecht NL-3508TD, The Netherlands
* Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 2 May 2013 / Revised: 17 June 2013 / Accepted: 28 June 2013 / Published: 11 July 2013
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Food Safety and Public Health)
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Abstract

A demographic shift towards a larger proportion of elderly in the Dutch population in the coming decades might change foodborne disease incidence and mortality. In the current study we focused on the age-specific changes in the occurrence of foodborne pathogens by combining age-specific demographic forecasts for 10-year periods between 2020 and 2060 with current age-specific infection probabilities for Campylobacter spp., non-typhoidal Salmonella, hepatitis A virus, acquired Toxoplasma gondii and Listeria monocytogenes. Disease incidence rates for the former three pathogens were estimated to change marginally, because increases and decreases in specific age groups cancelled out over all ages. Estimated incidence of reported cases per 100,000 for 2060 mounted to 12 (Salmonella), 51 (Campylobacter), 1.1 (hepatitis A virus) and 2.1 (Toxoplasma). For L. monocytogenes, incidence increased by 45% from 0.41 per 100,000 in 2011 to 0.60 per 100,000. Estimated mortality rates increased two-fold for Salmonella and Campylobacter to 0.5 and 0.7 per 100,000, and increased by 25% for Listeria from 0.06 to 0.08. This straightforward scoping effort does not suggest major changes in incidence and mortality for these food borne pathogens based on changes in de population age-structure as independent factor. Other factors, such as changes in health care systems, social clustering and food processing and preparation, could not be included in the estimates.
Keywords: incidence; mortality; future; ageing; The Netherlands; Salmonella spp.; Campylobacter spp.; Listeria monocytogenes; Toxoplasma gondii; hepatitis A virus incidence; mortality; future; ageing; The Netherlands; Salmonella spp.; Campylobacter spp.; Listeria monocytogenes; Toxoplasma gondii; hepatitis A virus
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

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Bouwknegt, M.; van Pelt, W.; Havelaar, A.H. Scoping the Impact of Changes in Population Age-Structure on the Future Burden of Foodborne Disease in The Netherlands, 2020–2060. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2013, 10, 2888-2896.

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