The Prior Can Often Only Be Understood in the Context of the Likelihood
AbstractA key sticking point of Bayesian analysis is the choice of prior distribution, and there is a vast literature on potential defaults including uniform priors, Jeffreys’ priors, reference priors, maximum entropy priors, and weakly informative priors. These methods, however, often manifest a key conceptual tension in prior modeling: a model encoding true prior information should be chosen without reference to the model of the measurement process, but almost all common prior modeling techniques are implicitly motivated by a reference likelihood. In this paper we resolve this apparent paradox by placing the choice of prior into the context of the entire Bayesian analysis, from inference to prediction to model evaluation. View Full-Text
Share & Cite This Article
Gelman, A.; Simpson, D.; Betancourt, M. The Prior Can Often Only Be Understood in the Context of the Likelihood. Entropy 2017, 19, 555.
Gelman A, Simpson D, Betancourt M. The Prior Can Often Only Be Understood in the Context of the Likelihood. Entropy. 2017; 19(10):555.Chicago/Turabian Style
Gelman, Andrew; Simpson, Daniel; Betancourt, Michael. 2017. "The Prior Can Often Only Be Understood in the Context of the Likelihood." Entropy 19, no. 10: 555.
Note that from the first issue of 2016, MDPI journals use article numbers instead of page numbers. See further details here.