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Entropy 2016, 18(9), 336; doi:10.3390/e18090336

Combined Forecasting of Streamflow Based on Cross Entropy

1
Renewable Energy Institute, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China
2
State Key Laboratory of New Energy Power System, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Kevin H. Knuth
Received: 23 June 2016 / Revised: 6 September 2016 / Accepted: 6 September 2016 / Published: 15 September 2016
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Abstract

In this study, we developed a model of combined streamflow forecasting based on cross entropy to solve the problems of streamflow complexity and random hydrological processes. First, we analyzed the streamflow data obtained from Wudaogou station on the Huifa River, which is the second tributary of the Songhua River, and found that the streamflow was characterized by fluctuations and periodicity, and it was closely related to rainfall. The proposed method involves selecting similar years based on the gray correlation degree. The forecasting results obtained by the time series model (autoregressive integrated moving average), improved grey forecasting model, and artificial neural network model (a radial basis function) were used as a single forecasting model, and from the viewpoint of the probability density, the method for determining weights was improved by using the cross entropy model. The numerical results showed that compared with the single forecasting model, the combined forecasting model improved the stability of the forecasting model, and the prediction accuracy was better than that of conventional combined forecasting models. View Full-Text
Keywords: combined forecasting; cross entropy; streamflow prediction combined forecasting; cross entropy; streamflow prediction
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This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (CC BY 4.0).

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Men, B.; Long, R.; Zhang, J. Combined Forecasting of Streamflow Based on Cross Entropy. Entropy 2016, 18, 336.

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